Consultant – Survey, Surveillance and Population Size Estimation at Palladium Group

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Job Detail

  • Job ID 25598
  • Experience See Job Description
  • Gender Male or Famele
  • Qualifications See Job Description

Job Description

Palladium is a global leader in the design, development and delivery of Positive Impact – the intentional creation of enduring social and economic value. We work with foundations, investors, governments, corporations, communities and civil society to formulate strategies and implement solutions that generate lasting social, environmental and financial benefits.

We are recruiting to fill the position below:

Job Title: Consultant – Survey, Surveillance and Population Size Estimation

Job ID: req19504
Location: Nigeria

Project Overview and Role

  • Data.FI is a five-year global project funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to support the HIV and COVID-19 response.
  • Data.FI partners with programs to accelerate and sustain access to high-quality data to expedite HIV and COVID-19 epidemic control and maintenance.
  • By improving global, regional, national, and community/local in-depth analyses of HIV and COVID-19 epidemiologic and programmatic data, Data.FI expedites program achievements to improve client services and attain and sustain control of the epidemics.
  • Data.FI supports host country governments to enhance existing health information systems (HIS), informing management responses to gaps in programming and sustaining impact by supporting local partner transition.


  • Investments by USAID Nigeria’s HIV program – which has a COP21 budget of over $250M and is currently serving around 700,000 PLHIV with life-saving treatment – are based on epidemiologic data.
  • A wide range of services are provided from economic and livelihood training to biologics.
  • To ensure proper planning and deployment of resources, it is imperative to have well defined estimations of the population of people living with HIV that are accurate and can be done in a timely and cost-effective manner.
  • These estimates need to be robust enough to form an accurate basis for annual program targets and resource allocation in such a way that level of effort and other resources required to respond to the HIV pandemic at all levels are not under-or-overestimated.
  • To date, PEPFAR/Nigeria has relied on the UNAIDS Spectrum modeling tool to generate state-level PLHIV estimates for the country.
  • The tool incorporates assumptions from the NAOMI tool and findings from the 2018 National AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS).
  • Population estimates and programmatic data are used as key input datasets. For the last few years, the PLHIV estimates generated by Spectrum Tool have been inconsistent (in some cases, dramatically high or low) with current HIV programs’ achievements.
  • This disconnect is, undoubtedly, driven by the lack of updated general population estimates (the last census in Nigeria was conducted in 2006).

Consultancy Overview

  • In January 2022 USAID/Nigeria, piloted an alternative HIV Population estimation model based on the Bayesian Predictive Modeling approach with a goal to propose a new way of estimating HIV prevalence and burden in Nigeria.
  • The resulting outcome of this work has undergone peer review in the Lancet Journal of eClinical Medicine and has also been presented to the national Strategic Knowledge Management Technical Working Group (SKM TWG).
  • USAID/Nigeria proposes that this alternative approach be used to support the HIV surveillance system and improve national integrated monitoring activities for infectious disease response in Nigeria. USAID/Nigeria believes this alternative method has a great potential of fitting HIV epidemiologic models.
  • Following this, the  Federal Government of Nigeria through its agencies and departments have asked USAID/Nigeria to collaborate with some of its statistics agencies (NASCP and NACA) on the following activities: (1) develop a concept note for a national implementation; (2) run the Bayesian model again for comparison using the validated national HIV program data used for the 2022 SPECTRUM estimation; and (3) organize a workshop to develop capacity in the use of Bayesian modeling approach.


  • This consultancy will provide specialized expertise and level of effort to support USAID/Nigeria’s HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis/Strategic Information (HAT/SI) team in the areas of surveys, surveillance, and population estimation.

Consultant Activities

  • The consultant will report to the Public Health Surveillance Specialist at Data.FI/Nigeria and work directly with USAID/Nigeria HAT/SI Team. S/he will be expected to commit 25 – 50% level of effort (LoE) towards the below listed activities, and commute between Data.FI, USAID/Nigeria, relevant Government of Nigeria offices and other donor agencies’ offices on the regular basis and as required by weekly activities.
  • The performance period for this consultancy is expected to be between June 2023 – September 2023 at approximately 3 days per week for 14 weeks. Due to activities of the consultant, s/he will be expected to be based in Abuja and work collaboratively with Data.FI, USAID, Government of Nigeria offices and other stakeholders.

 Primary Duties and Responsibilities

  • Represent USAID/Nigeria’s HIV-AIDS and TB (HAT) Office at modeling, survey, and surveillance related working sessions and meetings with the GoN, other USAID Offices, USG Agencies, and International Donors Community.
  • Coordinate the development, enhancement, testing, validation and implementation of alternative estimation models for people living with HIV-AIDS. This includes, and not limited to, the existing Bayesian estimation model for HIV Population.
  • Carry on modeling / estimation and other related tasks as requested by the USAID’s Team.
  • Carry on advanced analytics that help characterize HIV infections and size estimations, guide intensive case detection, optimize HIV resource allocation at the state and national levels.
  • Support ongoing national survey and surveillance activities
  • Ensure processes, work sessions, and findings are well documented and disseminated to all parties involved.

Expected Deliveries

  • Meeting minutes and monthly reports on various activities.
  • Modeling documentation, guidance, code (or syntax), input datasets, and outputs.
  • Draft and/or updated publication paper on the process and findings of current activities.
  • Weekly tasks tracker listing all formal requests, statuses, outputs and requesting staff name.
  • Outputs of reviewed and approved requests from all stakeholders.
  • Supporting materials for internal and external stakeholders’ communication.
  • Other outputs as they surface and as may be required.

Required Qualifications

  • A Medical Degree, Bachelor’s in Natural and Human Science or a related field.
  • A Master’s in Public Health, Epidemiology or related field is an added advantage.
  • Knowledge of advanced epidemiological analysis is an added advantage.
  • Experience working on population estimation is required and knowledge on the use of Bayesian estimation for HIV population is an added advantage.

Application Closing Date
Not Specified.

Method of Application
Interested and qualified candidates should:
Click here to apply online

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